The Reserve Bank of India has also expressed concern over rising inflation and said the prevailing level is above its comfort zone.
The Reserve Bank on Thursday marginally revised upwards the economic growth projection for the current fiscal to 6.5 per cent, from its earlier estimate of 6.4 per cent. Unveiling the first bi-monthly monetary policy of 2023-24 fiscal, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023-24 is expected at 7.8 per cent.
There is a case for analysing the fiscal deficit, separately for expenditure and investment.
India's biotechnology industry is pushing the government for fiscal incentives, import duty exemption and correction of policy that gives MNCs higher drug prices than "desi" producers, ahead of the Union budget.
The government has at last commenced important structural reforms.
The government's capex spend is expected to rise and much of this is likely to be focussed on rural India, particularly for housing, roads and irrigation.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday said India's economy is expected to contract for the first time in more than four decades saying economic damage owing to the coronavirus-induced lockdown will be significant with lower consumption and sluggish business activity. Even before the coronavirus outbreak, Indian economy already was growing at its slowest pace in six years and with the stimulus measures announced by the government falling short of expectations, the disruptions are likely to be greater. "We now expect India's growth to register a real GDP contraction for the fiscal year ending in March 2021 (fiscal 2020-21), from our earlier projection of zero growth," it said in a research note.
The economy is projected to clock 7.4 per cent growth.
India's economic growth rate is expected to be at least 6 per cent in the 2013-14 fiscal, Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) Chairman C Rangarajan said.
Crypto assets should not be granted official currency or legal tender status, the much-awaited synthesis paper by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Financial Stability Board (FSB) has said ahead of the G20 leadership summit under India's presidency. However, the report has argued against a blanket ban on activities linked to crypto assets, explaining that such a move can be costly as well as technically demanding to enforce. Central banks should avoid holding crypto assets in their official reserve as they pose a risk to monetary and global financial stability, according to the synthesis paper.
India plans to keep its fiscal deficit within 3.9% of GDP.
Wholesale price-based inflation rose to an eight-month high of 0.26 per cent in November, driven by a sharp jump in food prices, especially onion and vegetables. The WPI inflation was in the negative or deflationary zone for the past seven months since April and was at (-)0.52 per cent in October. The last positive WPI inflation was recorded in March at 1.41 per cent.
Highlights of Economic Survey 2020-21, tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday.
In line with India's 'Neighbourhood First' policy, the largest share of aid portfolio has been granted to Bhutan with the allocation of Rs 2,068 crore.
IThe fiscal deficit target for 2020-2021 was originally set at 3.5 per cent of GDP. But the government's revenues have collapsed and its expenditure burden will only increase over the Budget estimates.' With the government having already planned for an additional borrowing of over Rs 4 trillion, the fiscal deficit for the current year would be much higher than the Budget estimate, notes A K Bhattacharya.
IndusInd Bank was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying over 4 per cent, followed by SBI, Bajaj Finance, Bharti Airtel, Axis Bank, Sun Pharma, HDFC and PowerGrid.
The World Bank has retained India's economic growth forecast for the current fiscal at 8.3 per cent as the recovery is yet to become broad-based. As per the first advanced estimates of the national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) last week, the economy is projected to grow at 9.2 per cent in 2021-22, surpassing pre-COVID level in actual terms, mainly on account of improved performance, especially in farm, mining and manufacturing sectors. "India's economy is expected to expand by 8.3 per cent in fiscal year 2021/22 (ending March 2022), unchanged from last June's forecast as the recovery is yet to become broad-based.
Next bi-monthly policy statement on September 30.
A Kotak research report expects RBI to cuts rates by 50 basis points in the first half of 2019. RBI will announce its sixth bi-monthly monetary policy on February 7.
'If all goes well, we may well hit or even surpass the forecast growth rate.'
The RBI has cut key rates to boost the economy.
S&P Global Ratings has upgraded its long-term ratings on Tata Motors to speculative grade 'BB' with stable outlook on earnings improvements and potential deleveraging. The ratings agency had earlier placed Tata Motors in 'BB-'. As per S&P ratings, a BB grade is less vulnerable in the near-term but faces major ongoing uncertainties to adverse business, financial and economic conditions.
'As the growth momentum reverses benefiting from re-monetisation, it will be accompanied by a rise in inflation.'
Sentiments on domestic economic activity appear to be reviving, RBI said, adding that there are early signs of modest strengthening of corporate sales and business flows.
Top laggards in the Sensex pack included Kotak Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Tata Motors, L&T, SBI, Tata Steel and Axis Bank, falling up to 3.46 per cent.
The fiscal situation is an improvement over the previous year.
Bailout packages for fiscally stressed states are in the works, as the government seeks to garner political backing for the key policy reforms it plans to fast-track after the five state elections. A senior finance ministry official involved in the process said a high-level committee under expenditure secretary Sumit Bose had held consultations to identify measures to help West Bengal, Punjab and Kerala.
Sarma said his government was looking forward to the legislation on the Uniform Civil Code, which will be considered during a special four-day session of the Uttarakhand assembly that is starting from February 5.
Zoram People's Movement (ZPM) leader Lalduhoma was sworn in as the chief minister of Mizoram on Friday.
Fitch Ratings on Wednesday said India's high fiscal deficit would pose a challenge in lowering the debt to GDP ratio, which is expected to rise above 90 per cent in the next five years. It said India entered the pandemic with little fiscal headroom from a rating perspective. Its general government debt/GDP ratio stood at 72 per cent in 2019, against a median of 42 per cent for 'BBB' rated peers.
About 56 million Indians may have plunged into extreme poverty in 2020 as a result of the pandemic, increasing the global tally by 71 million and making it the worst year for poverty reduction since World War II, according to fresh estimates by the World Bank. "The global goal of ending extreme poverty by 2030 is likely to be missed: By then, about 600 million people will remain in abject poverty. A major course correction is needed," Indermit Gill, chief economist at the World Bank, tweeted. The World Bank in its latest "Poverty and Shared Prosperity" made fresh estimates of poverty using a new extreme poverty line based on the purchasing power parity (PPP) of $2.15, the earlier one being at $1.9.
A day after Fitch lowered India's local currency outlook to negative, international rating agency Moody's said it was also worried about the reversal of India's fiscal situation due to high oil prices and the lack of policy adjustment by the government. Moody's, however, said it was unlikely to change its investment grade rating to India's sovereign foreign currency rating or the domestic currency rating, which is below investment grade.
The Indian economy is likely to benefit from tailwinds from both monetary and fiscal policy in the coming month
While the economy seems to be on a firm growth path, the fight against inflation is not over yet. Shaktikanta Das seems to be in no hurry. After playing well through a five-year Test match, he doesn't want to get out hit wicket, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Wholesale price inflation remained in the negative territory for the fourth month in a row in July at (-)1.36 per cent, even though prices of food items, especially vegetables, skyrocketed. The inflation, however, has inched up from (-)4.12 per cent recorded in June fuelled by 62.12 per cent rise in vegetable prices. In July last year, wholesale price index (WPI) was 14.07 per cent.
After a stellar run in 2021 that saw the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 clock gains of 20 per cent and 22 per cent respectively, global equity markets, including India, are gearing up to welcome 2022 on a cautious note. For one, new variants of the Covid -19 infection that make current vaccines less effective is one of the key risks worth flagging, analysts said. Inflation was also a risk for this asset class in 2021, although most market participants expect that the current elevated inflation levels will be transitory.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday lowered India's economic growth projection for the current fiscal to 5.9 per cent from 6.1 per cent earlier. Yet India will continue to be the fastest-growing economy in the world. In its annual World Economic Outlook, IMF also lowered the forecast for 2024-25 fiscal (April 2024 to March 2025) to 6.3 per cent from the 6.8 per cent it had predicted in January this year. The growth rate of 5.9 per cent in the 2023-24 fiscal compares to an estimated 6.8 per cent in the previous year.
